We are oh-so-close to the MLB All Star Break, a time that brings back fond memories of my childhood. Growing up near Baltimore I was a big fan of the O’s and of course Cal Ripken, Jr. and I’ll never forget his final All Star Game.

The halfway point of the season is a great time to recap what’s happened already and also what I think will happen in the second half of the year. I’m ashamed to admit that I stopped recording game-by-game WTM stats back in May but I’m slowly (VERY SLOWLY) making my way through the last few months of numbers to get caught up. I do, however, have some stats for you.

MLB DISTRIBUTION OF POWER as of 7/8/2008

The Chicago Cubs have been absolutely incredible at home this year and are very deserving of the top spot in the rankings. Boston may be a bit of a surprise at #2 since they aren’t even leading the AL East right now, but their point differential is greater than division leading Tampa Bay’s. The Phillies are at the top of the NL East and we can expect them to widen the gap as they improve at home and Florida loses steam.

Seeing Texas at #5 is an absolute shock to me, and I actually double checked the formula to make sure that it wasn’t a mistake. The Rangers are 47-44 and lead the majors in RS, but they are dead last in RA with 522! Texas gets a huge boost in the formula from their 497 RS but I really see this as a temporary situation. Their run production will most likely decline while they continue to allow runs and they’ll slip out of the top ten in no time.

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Can anyone believe how unlucky Atlanta is this year? The Braves are 43-48 this year, but their record in 1-run games is 5-21! That means that in other games the Braves are 38-27 and if they played that way all year they’d be in the playoffs. When I get the WTM stats put back together it’ll be fascinating to see how that affects their win estimate.

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One last note…the AL is 149-102 against NL teams this year, which is absolutely ridiculous and it makes me wonder if the NL is really that bad.