It’s that time of year again - time to put my reputation on the line and provide you with the best (and only) real technical NFL analysis that your money can buy. This year I’ll be starting at the top and working my way down, beginning with the defending World Champion New York Giants.

Editor’s Note: For information on all 32 NFL teams, as well as conference dominance trends and Super Bowl predictions, please check out the NFL 2008 PREDICTOPOTAMUS available only at Bull VS Bear.

The Giants didn’t get off to a great start in 2007. They lost their first two games by giving up 80 points to the Cowboys and Packers. At that point they were written off by just about everybody, including myself, but they put together a six game winning streak and never looked back as they streaked to a 10-6 record and #5 seed in the playoffs. The cards appeared to be stacked against them but the Giants caught all three of their NFC playoff opponents as they were losing groung and won close games to advance to the Super Bowl. An astonishing performance, capped by a miraculous pass from Eli Manning to David Tyree, brought their season to a close with a victory over the undefeated Patriots.

So far this year the Giants are getting mixed reviews. The biggest question marks appear to be on offense where Eli Manning has yet to prove that he is an elite QB without Jeremy Shockey making big plays. The loss of Michael Strahan may also impact the defense, limiting their ability to produce such a devastating pass rush. Factors outside the organization may also lead to fewer wins - the Cowboys still look dangerous and the Eagles are expected to turn in a solid year, making the NFC East a tough place to compete.

The technical perspective offers some insight into the trends at play here. The Giants RSI (Relative Strength Index) peaked at 53.19 back in 2005 and has dropped in each of the past two years. RSI isn’t perfectly correlative to win percentage, but it can help us determine what kind of win percentage to expect since we know the direction they’re headed in.

In order to continue their descent to 45 we would need to see a sub-.500 season from the Giants. I don’t think the drop will be too severe, but a drop to 7-9 or 6-10 would put them where I think they’re headed. RSI isn’t the only technical stat though; WTM provides another interesting perspective on a game-by-game level.

What you see above is 240 games from 1993-2007. Each game has three statistics associated with it - a High (highest lead), Low (biggest deficit), and a Close (final margin of victory or loss). Plot out each game’s H/L/C and insert a 15-period and a 50-period Moving Average and you get an interesting set of trend lines. What I get from this chart is that their Close values won’t be quite as low in 2008, which will cause their 15-period MA to increase. 2008 will be a mediocre year but 2009 is looking pretty good because their RSI may also bottom out and will need to rise the following year.

The last chart to analyze is representative of Distribution/Concentration of Power (DCOP). DCOP uses PF and PA to determine how much power a single team holds within the league. In a world where all teams were equal, they would all hold 3.125% of league power. Last year the Giants won 10 games but only held 3.24% of league power, and when a team overachieves (just as with Pythag and WTM) we can expect a decline the following year.

2005 was their peak year, and since then we’ve seen significantly lower percentages from them. I think the Giants are going to make progress over the next five years, but 2008 will be a low point for them as their DCOP drops below 3.125% (possibly under 3%).

The final word - the New York Giants got lucky in 2007. They were an 8-8 team masquerading as a 10-6 team, and their overachivement will lead to mediocrity in 2008. Expect a less-than-stellar performance from the offense this year, especially from Manning. My prediction: 7-9.