Had you asked me last year what I thought my headline would be for the 2008 Patriots preview, I would have said something to the effect of “O, How the Mighty Have Fallen”. My projection was for around 10 wins:

Unfortunately for Pats fans, this was a great team at the end of a great run. It’s hard to swallow for some, but the fact of the matter is that this winning can’t go on forever.

So we all know how that prediction turned out. New England became the first team to win all 16 regular season games and they came up just short in their bid for perfection as they lost to the Giants in the Super Bowl. Can the Patriots buck the trends again in 2008?

When teams rise above an RSI of 55, they typically decline back toward 45. In 2000 the Patriots bottomed out at 43 and rose up to 53 just one season later. They fell to 50 the following year…but then something unusual happened…they rose again…and again. In fact, they have yet to fall back toward 45. Does it have something to do with Spygate? The supernatural? A pact with the devil? I’m not sure we’ll ever know, but this abnormal behavior will most likely cease in 2008 and their fall back toward 45 will begin with some struggling this season.

WTM indicates that a similar regression is likely. New England’s short term moving average (MA) spiked last year, then peaked. What we’re going to see this year is a decline in High, Low, and Close that will bring their short term MA back toward their long term MA. This means there won’t be as many blowouts, no 50-point games, no touchdown records…none of it. The Patriots will be slightly above average, at best, in 2008.