Power Rankings Week 5

After shooting down the Seahawks, the New York Giants are back on top of the WTM Power Rankings.

Their 38 point victory matched the largest lead that any team has had this year (the other team was Philadelphia in week one) and they lead the league in average High, Low and Close. They have only trailed once this year, by four points against the Bengals. Needless to say, they have played much better than I thought they would. By the end of the year they could very well be the 10-6 team in that division while the Eagles wind up 7-9.

Tennessee (5-0), Carolina (4-1), Dallas (4-1) and Chicago (3-2) wrap up the top five. As a matter of fact, seven of the top ten teams are from the NFC. This is a great sign that the NFC is doing exactly what I predicted they would do – conference dominance is in the early stages of switching, as evidenced by last year’s inter-conference play records.

Take a look at the following chart. It shows each team’s actual record versus their expected record using WTM stats.

What we can expect is that the teams that have significant differences between their actual and expected records will correct over the course of the season. Teams like Houston, Detroit and St. Louis will not play this badly for the rest of the year. The Giants and Titans will not be undefeated. The real question marks are the teams like Philadelphia (underachieving), San Diego (underachieving), Pittsburgh (overachieving) and Washington (overachieving). We’ll have to see a few more games before we will be able to tell whether their conditions will persist over the course of the season.

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