WTM Power Rankings Week 4

WTM Power Rankings, Week 4

It sure is hard to believe that we’re already a quarter of the way through the regular season.

There have been a good number of surprises this year. Tennessee and Buffalo are the last two unbeaten AFC teams, New England and Indianapolis look as though they could just fall apart at any minute, and the NFC East is far-and-away the best division in the entire league.

The rankings do a pretty good job at illustrating just how unusual the season has been so far. I’ve added some color to the always colorless table, and if you’ve been reading my work for a while it might even remind you of the old PRS tables that were my first attempt at a scientific rating system. Teams with a green O/U value are underachieving, meaning that their estimated wins are significantly higher than their actual wins. Teams with a red O/U value are overachieving, meaning that their estimated wins are significantly lower than their actual wins. These teams generally correct during the season, especially when an overachieving team meets an underachieving team. That’s good news for Eagles and Chargers fans, bad news for Broncos and Patriots fans.

Check back later on…I’ll be posting the first candlestick charts of the year and we’ll take look at which teams have positive momentum and which teams have negative momentum.

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