1996 – the Green Bay Packers, led by quarterback Brett Favre, defeat the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XXXI. The victory seemed rather routine considering the fact that it was the NFC’s thirteenth consecutive championship. The Packers had an average margin of victory of three touchdowns during the regular season, one of the most dominating seasons of all time. Many wondered whether the AFC would ever be able to win another championship.
2006 – the Indianapolis Colts, led by quarterback Peyton Manning, defeat the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI. The victory seemed to defy all odds. Many speculated before the game that Manning was a habitual choker in important games, and that the Colts’ defense had been run ragged during the regular season. Early in the year the Bears had been billed by many as favorites to win the title after winning by a wide margin in most of their contests. The Colts’ victory was the fourth consecutive win by an AFC team, and the eighth in ten years.
What a difference ten years makes. The two conferences, AFC and NFC, underwent complete role reversals seemingly overnight. In 1997, the season after Green Bay’s victory over New England, the Denver Broncos brought the Lombardi Trophy back to the American Conference. In 1998 they repeated. Only twice since then has the NFC representative in the Super Bowl claimed victory – the 1999 St. Louis Rams and the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
To some, these events were simply random. They claim that the championship is an unpredictable event and that the previous games of that season have little or no bearing on the outcome of the final match. Two teams take the field, and the luckier team walks away victorious.
Through new research into the underlying trends of professional football, these claims can be laid to rest for good. When analyzing Super Bowl match-ups, there are statistics and patterns that must be considered in order to more accurately predict the outcomes of the games. Overall conference dominance is just as important as the season play of each individual team.
A History Lesson
The transition of power from NFC to AFC in the late 1990’s was not the first time that such a transition occurred in the history of the NFL. A similar reversal occurred in the early 1980’s as well, only the balance of power shifted from AFC to NFC. Between 1968 and 1980 the AFC won the championship game eleven times out of a possible thirteen. The Miami Dolphins appeared in three consecutive Super Bowls, winning twice. The Pittsburgh Steelers appeared four times in six years, winning each time. They were the first teams of the Super Bowl Era to be recognized as dynasties. The AFC, once regarded as the David to the Goliath NFC, destroyed the pre-conceived notion that the older conference was inherently better. The AFC’s winning was not solely in the championship game – during the same period from 1968 to 1980 the AFC won 273 of the 501 inter-conference regular season contests, a .545 winning percentage. During their strongest years, from 1972 to 1980, that winning percentage skyrocketed to .596.
It wasn’t until 1981 that the NFC was able to pull even again. After losing eight of nine championships between 1972 and 1980, the San Francisco 49’ers won in dramatic fashion against the Cincinnati Bengals. For the first time since 1974 the NFC won more inter-conference games than the AFC. Head coach Bill Walsh was in the process of revolutionizing the offensive game, employing new schemes that kept defenses off balance. The following year, in 1982, the Washington Redskins defeated the Miami Dolphins. It was the first time since Super Bowls I and II that the NFC repeated as champions.
The years from 1983 to 1988 would be a back-and-forth struggle for dominance even though the AFC’s only championship in that period was in 1983. The AFC led or tied in inter-conference play in every one of those years.
1989 was the peak of the NFC’s dominance. The 49’ers destroyed the Denver Broncos 55-10 in the Super Bowl. The NFC reclaimed the lead in inter-conference play. Seven NFC teams won ten or more games that year; only one AFC team produced double-digit wins. During the years from 1989 to 1996 the NFC would win 230 of the 432 inter-conference games, a .532 winning percentage.
The NFC dominance of the 80’s and 90’s ended with the Green Bay Packers’ defeat at the hands of the Broncos in the 1997 championship. For the second straight year the AFC won more inter-conference games. 1998 brought the second consecutive title to the American Conference as the Broncos repeated against the overwhelmed Atlanta Falcons. It was the first time since the 1979 and 1980 seasons that the AFC won back-to-back Super Bowls.
Since 1997 the AFC has won inter-conference games at a .560 clip. They have won eight of ten Super Bowls. They have consistently led the league in teams with ten or more wins. The past decade has been very reminiscent of the first AFC era.
Dynasty Structure
As mentioned earlier, each period of conference dominance has been marked by several statistical indicators like inter-conference play dominance and teams with ten or more wins.
There is, however, another indicator that needs to be taken into account – the rise and fall of dynasties. When one conference is dominant over another, one team from the dominant conference will rise above all the others. For example – the Miami Dolphins, from 1971 to 1973, appeared in three consecutive championship games and won twice (including their undefeated 1972 season). Soon thereafter they were replaced by the Pittsburgh Steelers, the only team to win four Super Bowls in any six year span. As the AFC regressed and the NFC teams closed the gap there was a “changing of the guard”. The next four games were split, two wins apiece. In the 1980’s the 49′ers won four times to become the NFC’s first dynasty, and then the Cowboys won three times from 1992 to 1995 to become the second.
The structure is pretty apparent – during each period of conference dominance there is a period of instability, followed by the first dynasty, then a replacment dynasty, and finally another period of instability. During this latest period of AFC dominance it still isn’t quite obvious which team was the first dynasty – the Broncos or the Patriots – but for the time being it would be assumed that New England was the first dynasty. Denver won back-to-back titles, but all of the other dynasties have at least played in three consecutive games. If the pattern continues, there should be another AFC team that wins two out of three or three out of four Super Bowls before the NFC regains control. That could be the Steelers, Colts, or even a surprise team like the Bengals or Chargers.
The Cycle
It should come as no surprise that there are fluctuations in conference dominance. The fluctuations began as soon as the former American Football League merged with the existing National Football League. As the new AFC sought to destroy the idea that they would never be able to compete with the established NFC teams, they slowly gained momentum and caught the NFC by surprise. Their success led to more and more victories, but at the same time the NFC teams began the process of climbing back into contention. That has been the pattern for the past four decades – the weaker teams benefit from better draft picks and easier schedules, thus gaining momentum until they overtake the previous leaders and the cycle continues. Coaching and management also have a lot to add to the equation – as teams grow weaker and fall on to hard times the coaches are fired and the owners sell their teams. New management styles and revolutionary ideas begin with the teams that are not in contention as they seek to break out of their slumps.
The diagram above shows the cycle that each NFL team follows. Some current teams like the Indianapolis Colts are in the dominant phase. Others, like the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens, are in the weakening phase. They are acquiring talented veterans who may already have passed their prime playing days. They are panicking and are throwing money around in order to stay on top. Other teams, like the Oakland Raiders, have collapsed. With their glory days behind them, they are bringing in new coaches and younger players to build a solid foundation on. Some teams spend longer in the different stages than others. The Detroit Lions are for the most part stagnant. Their efforts to revitalize the team by adding youth and new coaching staffs have all failed, mostly due to the ineptitude of the upper management.
The cycle is unavoidable. Realistically, there is no way that a team could maintain dominance for much longer than five years. The key to winning in the NFL, then, is to determine how to move through the collapse and rebuilding stages as quickly as possible while still creating a solid foundation. Some teams progress quickly but then fall apart again. These teams are what some might call “Boom & Bust”. Take, for instance, the 2001 Chicago Bears. After spending five consecutive years under .500, they suddenly boomed to 13-3. The next year they busted, going 4-12. They had no foundation to support their sudden ascent, and the sudden fall was predictable. Moving through the rebuilding process requires quality draft picks, which are made possible by a solid scouting program. It also requires things like team unity, conditioning and training, and continuity in the staff and players. A constant flux of players and/or coaches is detrimental to a team.
Looking ahead to the 2007 season, the Dynasty Theory can aid in forecasting not only individual team performance but also conference play in both inter-conference games and the Super Bowl.
2007 will be the eleventh year of AFC dominance. The first period of AFC dominance, from 1968 to 1980, spanned thirteen years. The NFC dominant period from 1981 to 1996 lasted sixteen years. If the trend continues it would be expected that the current era of dominance should last about two to five more years. In terms of inter-conference play, the NFC should begin to be competitive again as early as this year. Expect the NFC to tie or lead in that statistical category. The Super Bowl, however, will remain with the AFC. As previously stated, there are four teams that are the most likely to become the replacement dynasty – the Steelers, champions in 2005; the Colts, champions in 2006; or possibly the Bengals or Chargers.
