Not much to say this week. Several sub-.500 teams are hanging around just outside the top ten (San DIego, Green Bay, Jacksonville) while the opposite is true for some teams that look a lot better on the field than they do on paper (Denver, Dallas, Minnesota, Indianapolis). 2-7 St. Louis made some big improvements as the season progressed but their humongous blowout loss to the Jets has slapped them back down to #32.

Tennessee is still #1 in the rankings, followed by the Giants, followed by the Eagles. Pittsburgh’s win over Washington was good enough to bump them up to 4th while the ‘Skins fell to 18th. Buffalo continues their freefall with another loss and a drop to 13th. Check out the rankings, and leave your comments below.

DENVER’S DEMISE: The Broncos lost to the Dolphins at home yesterday, pushing them to 4-4 on the year after a 4-1 start. Their three game losing streak should come as a surprise to nobody, considering the fact that they have been on a bearish trend since their blowout victory in week one. If there’s any good news for Broncos fans, it is that their week seven loss allowed them to hit bottom and we can expect a bit of a resurgence in the following weeks.

WINLESS TEAM: Detroit is now the last winless team in the league following Cincinnati’s upset of the Jaguars. Since nobody expects Tennessee to finish the season undefeated, the Lions are going to be watched closely by the media and they will undoubtedly be labeled by many as the worst team in league history. Even if Detroit does finish 0-16, they won’t even be the worst team this year. They are currently ranked 28th according to the Walters Trend Method, ahead of Oakland, St. Louis, Kansas City and Cincinnati.

RISE OF THE VIKINGS: Minnesota, one of my preseason NFC favorites, is now 4-4 after defeating the Houston Texans. Gus Frerotte was 11/18 for 182 yards but he threw three touchdowns to only one interception. The Vikings were supposed to be winning with a stout defense and adequate offense, but against the Texans they allowed 389 total yards (327 through the air) and were fortunate to gobble up three turnovers. These next five weeks will be crucial as they play Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Chicago and Detroit. They’ll need to go 4-1 or 3-2 during that stretch in order to have any shot at the playoffs…their final games are against Arizona, Atlanta and the New York Giants.

THE EAGLES ARE GOOD: Philadelphia is on a three game winning streak and is ranked third in the WTM Power Rankings even though several other teams have better won-lost records. It’s not the number of wins that impresses about Philly, but the way they’re winning. Against San Francisco they led by 14 and won by 14. Against Atlanta they led by 13 and won by 13. Yesterday they led by 19 and won by 19 against Seattle. When a team takes a lead and never gives it up, they’re the real deal.

More tomorrow, including WTM Power Rankings.

Jets 28, Bills 24

Bears 35, Lions 16

Jaguars 20, Bengals 13

Browns 22, Ravens 14

Packers 21, TItans 14

Buccaneers 24, Chiefs 17

Rams 31, Cardinals 21

Vikings 31, Texans 19

Broncos 17, Dolphins 13

Cowboys 28, Giants 24

Eagles 31, Seahawks 27

Falcons 21, Raiders 16

Patriots 31, Colts 23

Steelers 24, Redskins 13

A lot of analysts have the Bills, Ravens, Titans, Cardinals, Dolphins, Giants, and possibly even the Redskins winning. That’s six or seven potential upsets! I definitely agree with the Jets-Bills prediction considering the way Buffalo has been plummeting since week one. I can also see the Titans losing to a Green Bay team that has been making dramatic improvements since week three. See the Bulls and Bears column from last week for charts and details.

In other news, I’ve been doing a lot of political research with the upcoming presidential election only a few days away. I know, I may have procrastinated a little bit. I’m a big fan of Ron Paul and I wouldn’t normally use this sports site as a means of promoting non-sports causes but if you haven’t done any research on the Austrian school of economic thought, you should stop reading this post and look it up. The reason I bring it up in this forum is because of the connections my analysis has with economics…I use several economic analysis methods to produce WTM stats and trend charts, and Dow theory provides a solid basis for any sort of technical analysis.

My new focus on this site is to investigate the psychological aspects of the game and in researching the Austrian economic theories I ran into a subject called “praxeology”. In short, praxeology is a framework for studying human action. It is most often applied to economics (i.e. buying, selling, etc.) but I see no reason why it couldn’t also be used to examine and analyze athletes and teams.

From praxeology Mises derived the idea that every conscious action is intended to improve a person’s satisfaction. He noted that praxeology is not concerned with the individual’s definition of end satisfaction, just the way he sought that satisfaction and that individuals will increase their satisfaction by removing sources of dissatisfaction or “uneasiness”.    - from answers.com

In my opinion, Mises discovered a fundamental principle of human existence - that human beings will act in a way that will improve their satisfaction. In other words, we do what makes us feel good. Surely there can be a philisophical debate about what “good” is, but that’s kind of the point of the Austrian school of thought: every person’s “good” is subjective, and so individual choice is at the root of all action.

We can take that into the world of athletics. Terrell Owens does what feels good. He chases the things that he values the most. When you put together a group of players who have similar values, and they act simultaneously to attain the thing they value, they will accomplish their goals much faster and more efficiently than a team of players with different individual values and goals. Perhaps I’m over-simplifying things, but I’d be willing to bet that the power of individual choice is the single greatest cause of winning and losing. Of course these things cannot be measured, or are very hard to measure, because a person’s values are subjective and change by the moment. That’s why I have such a hard time accepting stat methods like DVOA - they’re too mechanical, inflexible. They rely on the observable and throw out the subjective, and so in reality they are throwing away the human element that is a much larger part of the game than they want to admit.

Hence the power of technical, or trend, analysis. Human behavior may not be predictable on a minute-by-minute basis, but when you track behavior over time you will see patterns form. These patterns form because of the choices they make…good choices, followed by bad choices, followed by good choices, and so forth.

So anyway, check it out. It’ll give you a better understanding of why I build this site in the first place, and I’m excited to share my learning journey with you. And like, three other people.

I can be subjective too sometimes.

Feel free to comment on any of my selections here…I really do want to hear what you have to say.

OFFENSIVE MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: DREW BREES, NEW ORLEANS

I’m a pretty traditional guy, so when I say Most Valuable Player I’m talking about the player who has the biggest positive impact on his team. There is one reason, and one reason only, that the New Orleans Saints are still in the NFC playoff hunt. That reason is the aforementioned Mr. Brees, who is on pace to crack 5,000 yards passing and 30 touchdowns. I know, picking a quarterback is the easy way out.

Honorable mention: Clinton Portis, WAS

DEFENSIVE MOST VALUABLE PLAYER: DEMARCUS WARE, DALLAS

DeMarcus Ware is a beast. He has nine sacks, 44 tackles, and according to the Football Outsiders there have been seven more instances when he hit the quarterback just after a throw. It’s a defensive lineman’s job to put pressure on the quarterback and so far this year there has been nobody better at it.

Honorable mention: Justin Tuck, NYG; Kyle Vanden Bosch, TEN

NFC ROOKIE OF THE FIRST HALF: MATT RYAN, ATLANTA

Give the young man from Exton, PA some props. His first NFL pass went for a 62 yard touchdown. Along with RB Michael Turner, he has turned around one of the league’s worst franchises. Don’t forget about the Falcons, who are 4-3 and are still on the playoff bubble in a competitive division. Ryan isn’t putting up huge numbers (1,441 yards, 7 TDs) but the fact that he has led his team to four wins this year when they won a total of four games in 2007 is a huge deal.

Honorable mention: Matt Forte, CHI; Chris Long, STL

AFC ROOKIE OF THE FIRST HALF: CHRIS JOHNSON, TENNESSEE

The Titans aren’t 7-0 because of Vince Young. They aren’t 7-0 because of Kerry Collins. They are 7-0 because of their solid defense and their fantastic runningback duo of Chris Johnson and LenDale White. Johnson has played a leading role in the rushing and passing game, racking up over 600 yards on the ground while catching 18 passes out of the backfield. He doesn’t get the goal line touches as often as White, but it’s his work between the 20’s that has put White in position for double-digit touchdown numbers.

Honorable mention: Jerod Mayo, NE

COACH OF THE FIRST HALF: JIM ZORN, WASHINGTON

There are a number of strong candidates for this award, and I may regret not giving it to Jeff Fisher, but Zorn stands out in my mind as the most deserving after eight games. He has led his upstart Redskins to a 6-2 record in the toughest division in the league. He has led his team to victories over Philadelphia and Dallas, and they gave the Giants a run for their money in week one. Granted, his team is overachieving and may regress in the second half, but I had already counted them out of the race in the preseason and the fact that they’re hanging around is a big deal to me.

Honorable mention: Jeff Fisher, TEN; Mike Tomlin, PIT

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE FIRST HALF: KURT WARNER, ARIZONA

Give Kurt a big “welcome back!” He’s on pace for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns, and his Arizona Cardinals are leading the NFC West. It’s nice to see him healthy again after spending most of the past six years struggling with injuries and ineffectiveness. Did I mention he’s on pace to set a new personal best in completion percentage?

Honorable mention: Donovan McNabb, PHI; Kyle Orton, CHI

RANDOM OTHER AWARDS:

Surprise Team of the First Half: Indianapolis Colts, for their 3-4 start so far this year.

Bull of the FIrst Half: St. Louis Rams, from worst in the NFL to “average”…and a win over the ‘Skins.

Bear of the First Half: Buffalo Bills, from top of the world to a loss against struggling Miami.

Biggest Story of the First Half: Undefeated Patriots Not So Tough Without Brady.

Most Under-rated Player of the First Half: Leon Washington, NYJ. I’ll pick him every year. The guy is averaging 4.7 yards per carry in his career, yet nobody will start him. He has 22 receptions this year, giving him 83 in his three years as a Jet. More importantly, he is averaging 13 yards per punt return and 27.6 yards per kickoff return…he’s a big reason why the Jets rank FIRST in Kickoff Return DVOA according to Football Outsiders.

Mover Over-rated Player of the First Half: Kyle Orton, CHI. I can’t believe people are talking about Kyle Orton going to the Pro Bowl. It makes me sick to my stomach. Somehow this guy is 16-9 as a starter in the NFL. He will crack 3,000 passing yards this season…barely…against some pretty woeful teams.

Tastiest Snack During Games of the First Half: Hands down, I’m voting for sourdough hard pretzel bites and grape juice. There is nothing in the world quite like that combination. I’m dead serious about it…try it.

Strangest Thing I’ve Seen During the First Half: Has to be the Wildcat offense. I’m loving it. It’s the greatest thing since sliced bread…well, maybe since the Wing-T…well, it’s since been overtaken by the A-11, but it’s still pretty awesome. I love the versatility of the formations. One of my biggest pet peeves is seeing a team run the same plays, every down, every game, expecting different results. Blah blah blah. See Detroit Lions.

Enjoy the second half!

The WTM estimates correlate with actual results by .9026 now, which is good, but it worries me that I’ve got the NFC East cellar-dwelling Eagles ranked #3 this week. Either the Eagles will win out in the second half or they’re going to be one of those teams that underachieves all year long.

Leading the pack, still, are the Tennesee Titans. They’re a tough bunch to figure out and their win against Indianapolis last night all but locked them in for a division title. Their mistake-free play and their ability to capitalize on turnovers will make them very dangerous in January.

The Giants are a distant second, for now, and their mettle will be tested in the second half as they play tough teams every single week. Their easiest game of the second half may be a trip to play the NFC West-leading Cardinals, and that’s not a team to take lightly in any way.

Take a gander at the latest rankings, and leave you comments below if you’d like to make a few points. Your input is always welcome.

We also share the same first name, even though I go by D.S. (that’s Doug Scott). In any case, because of the Football Professor’s stock market philosophy concerning NFL betting, I’ve decided to look at the Tennessee Titans, 7 and 0 straight-up and 7 and 0 against the spread, in terms of market philosophy.

Without a doubt, starting this weekend, it is time to “sell” the Tennessee Titans.

Are the Tennessee Titans for real? Well, it depends on what you as a sports handicapper feel is “real”. Yes, they are real in terms of being an elite football team in the NFL. But as the NFL has shown us the past few years, being an elite football team doesn’t necessarily mean that you are going to cover against the spread in every single game. Sometimes, it doesn’t mean that you are going to cover against the spread in any game. Case in point? Last year’s elite team, the New England Patriots.

The Patriots started out covering in every game they played in. Then, something strange happened. They couldn’t cover the side of a barn with farm fresh air. The Pats failed to cover in their last three games of the season or in any post-season game even though every single one of those was in New England.

I’m not waiting until the last three weeks of the NFL season to “sell” the Titans. There are a number of reasons why the Titans are a good “sell” at this point.

Here we go!

1. The schedule gets tougher - - The Titans now face the Green Bay Packers at home, the Chicago Bears on the road and the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road in succession. All three teams have much better defenses than the Colts and when the Titans faced the Jaguars earlier this year, in week one, the Jags were screwed up on the offensive line. Not only that, but Green Bay and Chicago has shown the ability to score a lot of points this season. Tennessee also has to play Cleveland, who all of a sudden is kicking it into gear, Houston, who has one of the top QB/WR combos in the NFL with Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis again. That’s tough.

2. Kerry Collins can’t keep it going - - That’s a cool alliteration, don’t you think? It’s also very true. Collins is a serviceable veteran, but he won’t be able to produce the type of second half he had against the Colts the other night in every single game this season. I’m not saying the Titans don’t cover against the spread in any game from here on out, but I am saying that the way that teams defend against the Titans is going to get better. Collins will have more pressure on him. He will succeed but he won’t succeed enough at a sportsbook to make profits on this team.

3. The spreads shall rise - - This is like supply and demand. Think the price of oil and gas. The better the Titans do, the more odds makers will look at them as favorites. The higher the against the spread lines in their games will go. The easier it will be for teams to beat those online spreads. This happened to the Pats last season. I don’t see why it doesn’t happen to the Titans this season.

4. Justin Gage is great…sometimes - - Even with Randy Moss the Pats had trouble against the spread last year once the betting lines got out of whack. The Titans don’t have the type of team that can put up tons of points. I mean, I like Justin Gage as a player but he had some serious drops against the Colts. Tossing the ball to Alge Crumpler, counting on LenDale White to get a yard or two every carry, and hoping that Chris Johnson breaks one, isn’t the way to win football games. Sure, it’s worked so far, but defenses adjust in this league. Offenses have a hard time adjusting to defenses. Gage is a good wide receiver. But to be a great offensive team, you need a great wide receiver.

5. Jeff Fisher is a master coach. But he doesn’t care about betting lines - - This is the biggest issue facing the Titans for sports handicappers. Jeff Fisher is a genius coach. But he doesn’t care about betting lines. He cares about winning games. The Titans, because of their lofty power ranking, is going to be the favorite in possibly every single game from now until the end of the regular season. Fisher is gong to find a way for this team to win. That won’t necessarily mean that they cover in those games. A two point win is just as nice to Fisher as a 5 point victory.

Bottom line? When it comes to the Tennessee Titans, it’s time to sell, sell, sell!

At the time of my first report the NFC held a slim 10-8 lead over the AFC. The NFC lead has grown, albeit very slightly, to 15-11 behind strong play from the NFC East and South.

Take a look at how the top teams from each conference have played this year:

AFC (11-15)

Tennessee: 1-0

Buffalo: 2-1

New England: 2-0

Pittsburgh: 0-2

New York Jets: 1-0

Denver: 2-0

NFC (15-11)

New York Giants: 2-1

Carolina: 2-0

Washington: 1-0

Dallas: 2-0

Tampa Bay: 0-1

Arizona: 2-1

So the AFC’s best six are 8-3, making the rest of their conference a miserable 3-12. The NFC’s best six are 9-3, making the rest of their conference a semi-respectable 6-8 against AFC foes. It’s interesting to see that the big difference between the top and bottom teams in each conference so far this year has been inter-conference play. Also interesting is the fact that Pittsburgh’s only two losses of the year have come at the hands of NFC teams…that’s evidence enough to prove to me that the NFC East is still the toughest division in all the kingdom.

I’ll leave you with one more tidbit of information: only six NFC teams have losing records against AFC opponents. Those teams are Minnesota, Detroit, Tampa Bay, St. Louis, Seattle and San Francisco. Four of those teams have no shot at making the playoffs now…where do you think the other two will stand by the end of the year if they keep up their poor inter-conference play?

I nailed it.

Check out the chart I ran in last week’s Bulls and Bears post in which I predicted the Saints’ next few weeks:

Check out their actual performance in week eight:

Now, for you nay-sayers, I’ll admit that the lead wasn’t as high as I predicted nor did I realize that I marked the prediction down for week 9 in the previous chart. The Saints have a bye this week but I’ll bet you a bag of peanuts that they lose on the road against Atlanta in week 10, in a game where both teams lead and the Falcons win by 10+ points.

No matter how you say it, this year has to be ranked among the strangest ever. “Any given Sunday”, so they say.

Here are the biggest movers and shakers of the past week:

NEW ORLEANS: lost to Carolina, dropped from 4 to 13.

PITTSBURGH: defeated Cincinnati, climbed from 11 to 4.

CAROLINA: defeated New Orleans, climbed from 14 to 7.

DALLAS: lost to St. Louis, dropped from 10 to 15.

INDIANAPOLIS: lost to Green Bay, dropped from 12 to 19.

NEW ENGLAND: defeated Denver, climbed from 24 to 14.

A big win or a big loss will have a dramatic effect on the rankings because so many teams are bunched together in the middle of the pack.

This past week was the opposite of the week before, when underachieving teams won and overachievers lost. In week seven, RED teams (overachieving) were 8-1 while GREEN teams (underachieving) were 2-6. I think this week we’ll see RED teams finish around 6-3 while GREEN teams go 3-7 or 2-8.