As you may know, the Vikings were a pre-season favorite of mine to contend in the NFC. Specifically, I predicted that they would win the NFC North with approximately 11 wins. Obviously, one of two things can happen here. Either I’ll wind up dead wrong, or Minnesota will find some way to turn things around with a big second half. I’m going to lean towards the optimistic scenario, and I think now is a good time to show you something new that I am ... Read More

I talk a lot about momentum on this site. I feel like there are a lot of misconceptions about momentum, so I wrote a paper about it. Your team can be on a winning streak but have negative momentum, or your team can be on a losing streak and have positive momentum. Four games into the regular season, it's time to take a look at which teams are Bulls (positive momentum) and which are Bears (negative momentum). BULLS: Carolina Panthers (3-1): The Panthers won their first ... Read More

It sure is hard to believe that we're already a quarter of the way through the regular season. There have been a good number of surprises this year. Tennessee and Buffalo are the last two unbeaten AFC teams, New England and Indianapolis look as though they could just fall apart at any minute, and the NFC East is far-and-away the best division in the entire league. The rankings do a pretty good job at illustrating just how unusual the season has been so far. I've added ... Read More

Ten things you'll hear around the watercooler this week: 1. The Dolphins are a force to be reckoned with in the AFC East! Yes, Miami beat the Patriots. Yes, they scored 38 points. Yes, Ronnie Brown had the game of his life. But do you really expect the 'Fins to be able to run the Wildcat offense against anyone else this year? As much as I'd like to see more teams run the option in the NFL it can't be on an every-play basis. ... Read More

No fanfare, no dizzying explanations...just the power rankings this week: The remaining six undefeated teams in the league are all found within the top 8, with Philadelphia and Arizona sneaking in as well at 2-1. I'll point out the O/U column this week...a positive O/U indicates that the team is overachieving and vice-versa with a negative O/U. Yes, it means Over/Under. St. Louis is historically bad but they are on a positive slope and seem to have some momentum (oh yes, sweet intangible ... Read More

A while back (like, back in 2005) I first reported that I had discovered a moderate correlation between Super Bowl wins and League-leading rushers. To refresh your memory... In 28 of the past 42 years (66%), the Super Bowl winner has come from the same conference as the league-leading rusher. There is a .344051 correlation. Obviously that is a weak correlation, but the numbers indicate that there is moderate evidence against randomness. In addition, there have only been three instances in the last 42 years ... Read More

Ten things you'll hear around the watercooler this week: 1. The Patriots are juuuuust fine without Tom Brady. Matt Cassell did great! Oh, really? Their two wins this year were against who? In their first two games of 2007 they scored 76 points and gave up 28...this year they have scored 36 and given up 20. They look anemic at best and Cassel is averaging 150 yards per game, not the 270 that Brady put up in the first two games of last year. ... Read More

Was this the top four you expected to see? The top team in the NFL after two weeks of play, according to WTM, is the New York Giants. Their perfect game (H=28, L=0, C=28) against St. Louis gave them an average Close of 18.5 points for the year and they have yet to trail an opponent. Oddly enough, our #1 is the same as the DVOA #1...that doesn't happen too often. Our #2 team is Buffalo. Needless to say, we don't expect them to ... Read More

*Dramatic fanfare and drumroll* Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, miserable Brady fans of all ages: here are the first WTM Power Rankings of the 2008 NFL season. Remember, the rankings are generated using BVSB's proprietary Walters Trend Method, a system that examines each team's Highest Lead (H), Lowest Deficit (L) and Closing Margin (C) to determine how many wins a team should have at any given point in the year. As we progress further into the season we'll also show you the trends ... Read More

Thirteen games down, three to go. Week 1 of the 2008 NFL season has been absolutely spectacular. We've already seen an exciting come-from-behind victory, an absolute blowout, a shootout and a defensive grind 'em up. Can week two possibly get any better than this? Some thoughts before the Sunday night Colts-Bears game comes on: ********************** We'll get a lot more information on the injury Tom Brady sustained when they do the MRI tomorrow, and I don't expect him to miss a substantial amount of time considering ... Read More

Giants fans were looking for a sign last night, a sign that their team has what it takes to defend their Super Bowl title. The nay-sayers, on the other hand, were looking for a sign that Eli Manning and Co. would crumble and verify the allegations that they were merely one of the most fortunate teams in NFL history in 2007. As luck would have it, both sides got the signs that they were looking for. New York's 16-7 victory over the visiting Redskins can be interpreted in two completely different ways. Undoubtedly ... Read More

Tonight is finally, finally , the big night. The 2008 NFL season kicks off tonight at 7 PM as the New York Giants and Washington Redskins do battle in the Meadowlands. The Giants, of course, are striving to prove once and for all that they can defend their improbable championship from 2007. Washington snuck into the playoffs last year only to lose in the first round to Seattle, so they too will begin the new year with something to prove. The game ... Read More

Let me begin with an apology. This year I just won't have the time to keep track of WTM stats for the NCAA Top 25 football teams. That will probably disappoint three people around the world. What I would like to do this year is just keep you informed with regards to my general opinion on the teams, players, and relevant stats that I notice as I dig through box scores and game film. I'm trying expand out into the fundamental side of ... Read More

November 25, 1993 is a very special day for me. Some might find that strange since It isn't my birthday, my anniversary or my graduation date. Others may remember it as just another Thanksgiving. Yet I will always hold that date in high regard, because that was the day that I became a Detroit Lions fan. I don't remember many details. Back in those days we would go to my uncle's house for dinner and the games would always be on in the ... Read More

Editor's Note: These brief but telling articles first ran on 6/18 and 6/22/2007. As we head toward Kickoff '08, I'd just like to point out once again that parity absolutely has NOT been affected by free agency, and that the only reason that parity has been increasing in the NFL at all is because there are new teams added on a regular basis. Your team does not have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl this year because of free agency ... Read More